Breakeven win rate calculator
What win rate do you need for your reward to risk? Enter your averages and costs and get the line. No sign-up.
Enter your average winning trade and average losing trade, add what each trade costs you, and the calculator shows the win rate at which you neither gain nor lose. If you also type your actual win rate, it shows the expectancy per trade. Use dollars or R multiples, as long as both numbers use the same unit.
The formula
Breakeven win rate = loss / (win + loss), where win is your average win and loss is your average loss. With a 1:2 reward to risk, the loss is 1 and the win is 2, so you need 1 / (2 + 1) = 33.3% of trades to win. With costs, subtract the cost from every win and add it to every loss before you apply the same formula. That is why a trader with thin targets is hurt more by the spread than one with wide targets.
Breakeven win rate by reward to risk (no costs)
| Reward to risk | Win rate needed to break even | Loss rate you can survive |
|---|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 1 : 0.75 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| 1 : 3 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 1 : 4 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| 1 : 5 | 16.7% | 83.3% |
Read the table from either side. A trader who takes small profits at 1:0.5 has to win two trades in three just to stand still. A trader who targets 1:3 can lose three trades in four. Neither is better by itself; what matters is whether your actual win rate, measured in your journal, is above the line for the payoff you actually get, not the one you planned.
What costs do to the line (hypothetical)
Suppose your average win is $20, your average loss is $10 and each trade costs $2 in spread and commission. Without costs the breakeven is 10 / 30 = 33.3%. With costs the average win is $18 and the average loss is $12, so the breakeven is 12 / 30 = 40.0%. The same strategy needs almost seven more winners in every hundred trades, which is why scalpers should measure costs per trade and not only per month.
| Average win | Average loss | Cost per trade | Breakeven win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $20 | $10 | $0 | 33.3% |
| $20 | $10 | $1 | 36.7% |
| $20 | $10 | $2 | 40.0% |
| $20 | $10 | $4 | 46.7% |
The figures are made up to show the arithmetic. Your own costs depend on your broker and instruments; read them from your account, not from an article.
Planned reward to risk versus real payoff
Most traders type their planned ratio into a calculator like this one and stop. The number that matters is the payoff you actually realised, because stops get moved, targets get cut early and partial closes change the average. The cutting winners early page shows how a plan for 1:2 can quietly become something much smaller. Take your last 50 closed trades, divide the average win by the average loss, and use that ratio here. If you track trades in Notion with one row per closed position, the two averages are a quick filter and a formula away.
From breakeven to expectancy
Breakeven tells you the minimum. Expectancy tells you the result at your real win rate: win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss. The expectancy calculator does this directly, and the risk of ruin calculator shows how a thin edge behaves over hundreds of trades. A win rate only a point or two above breakeven is not a safe margin on a small sample, because a normal run of losses can sit well below it for a long time. The losing streak calculator shows how long those runs get.
How to use it in your weekly review
- Write your breakeven win rate for each setup at the top of the review, using the realised payoff of the last 30 to 50 trades.
- Compare it with the actual win rate for the same trades. The gap, not the win rate alone, is your margin.
- If the gap is negative, change one thing at a time: the exit rule, the filter or the cost, then re-measure on new trades.
- Do not widen your target just to lower the line unless fills at the wider target really happen. Check how many trades reached it.
A worked example from a trade list (hypothetical)
Take 20 closed trades. Eight win for a total of $480 and twelve lose for a total of $420. The average win is $60 and the average loss is $35, so the reward to risk is 1 : 1.71 and the breakeven win rate is 35 / 95 = 36.8%. The actual win rate is 8 / 20 = 40%, a margin of 3.2 points. With a cost of $3 per trade the average win becomes $57 and the average loss $38, so the breakeven becomes 38 / 95 = 40.0%, and the margin disappears completely. On twenty trades that is a coin flip, so the honest conclusion is to keep logging and cut costs, not to raise the size. The numbers here are invented for the example.
Limits of this calculator
- It assumes every win is the same size and every loss is the same size. Real trades vary, so use averages from a large enough sample.
- It ignores swaps, slippage and the effect of position sizing and compounding.
- It does not predict future results, and it is not trading or investment advice.
Compare the breakeven line with your measured rate in the win rate calculator, which also shows the range your sample allows.
Frequently asked questions
What is a breakeven win rate?
What win rate do I need with a 1:2 risk to reward?
Is a win rate above breakeven enough to be profitable?
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