Free losing streak calculator
How likely is a losing run of five, eight or ten trades? Enter your win rate and number of trades to find out. No sign-up.
Enter your win rate, how many trades you are looking at, and the length of the losing run you want to know about. The tool gives the chance that at least one run that long happens somewhere in those trades, and the typical longest run.
How it works
It assumes each trade is independent with a fixed win rate. It tracks the length of the current losing run through each trade and adds up the paths that reach your streak length. The typical longest streak uses the standard approximation ln(n x win rate) / ln(1 / loss rate).
Reading the result
- A high chance means you should expect that streak at some point, not take it as a sign something broke.
- Use your own journal's win rate and the number of trades you take in a typical quarter.
- Real trades are not perfectly independent, so streaks can be longer than this model suggests.
See the full table and a plan for handling a streak in losing streaks in trading: how long is normal?, and size trades so a streak cannot hurt you with the position size calculator.
This calculator is for education. It is not trading or investment advice.
How likely is a losing streak? (computed table)
The table gives the chance of at least one run of the stated length somewhere in the stated number of trades, for three hypothetical win rates, assuming each trade is independent. Figures are rounded.
| Win rate | Streak | In 50 trades | In 100 trades | In 250 trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 5 losses | 84% | 98% | 100% |
| 40% | 8 losses | 27% | 49% | 83% |
| 40% | 10 losses | 10% | 20% | 45% |
| 50% | 5 losses | 55% | 81% | 99% |
| 50% | 8 losses | 8% | 17% | 38% |
| 50% | 10 losses | 2% | 4% | 11% |
| 60% | 5 losses | 26% | 46% | 79% |
| 60% | 8 losses | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| 60% | 10 losses | 0% | 1% | 2% |
Even a 60% win rate produces a five-loss run in nearly half of 100-trade samples. A 50% strategy has about a 38% chance of an eight-loss run within 250 trades and about an 11% chance of a ten-loss run. Streaks that feel like proof the strategy broke are often just what the mathematics predicts.
The typical longest streak
A convenient approximation for the longest losing run expected in n trades is ln(n x win rate) / ln(1 / loss rate):
| Win rate | 50 trades | 100 trades | 250 trades |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 5.9 | 7.2 | 9.0 |
| 50% | 4.6 | 5.6 | 7.0 |
| 60% | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
What a streak does to the account
A streak matters because of the risk per trade. At 1% risk, five losses in a row cost about 4.9% of the account and ten cost about 9.6%. At 3% risk, ten losses cost about 26.3%. Combine this page with the drawdown recovery calculator to see what it takes to climb back, and size trades with the position size calculator so a normal streak cannot become a crisis.
Decisions to make before the streak, not during it
- Write the plan while calm. Decide what you will do after three, five and eight losses in a row: keep the same size, reduce size, or stop for the day. Having it written down removes an in-the-moment argument with yourself.
- Separate plan-following losses from rule-breaking ones. A streak of well-executed losses is variance. A streak of impulsive trades is a behaviour problem, and the response is different. Mark each trade in your journal.
- Do not raise size to recover. Larger trades after losses are how a normal streak turns into a deep drawdown. See revenge trading.
- Check the sample. If your recent losing run is within what the table predicts for your win rate and trade count, the data does not say the edge has gone.
Independence is an assumption
The model treats each trade as unrelated to the last. Real trades are not perfectly independent: several positions may be open on correlated instruments, a trending or ranging market can last for weeks, and your own state of mind affects the next entry. These effects tend to lengthen streaks, so treat the calculator's answer as a floor rather than a ceiling. A journal makes the correlation visible by showing whether losses cluster in particular sessions, instruments or market conditions.
More on handling the experience itself is in losing streaks in trading: how long is normal? and trading tilt.
Using the numbers to set expectations
Pick the win rate your own journal shows for the strategy you trade and the number of trades you take in a typical quarter, and read off the chance of the streak you fear. If you take about 100 trades per quarter at a 50% win rate, a run of five losses is more likely than not within that quarter, while ten in a row is a rarity of roughly 4%. Write those figures into your trading plan. The first time a five-loss run arrives you will recognise it as ordinary, and the plan will tell you what to do next.
It also helps to compare streak length with the risk you take per trade. A trader risking 0.5% can sit through a ten-trade streak with a loss of under 5%; a trader risking 3% cannot. The calculator tells you how likely the streak is, and the drawdown tables tell you what it costs. Together they answer the practical question: is my risk per trade small enough that a streak I should expect cannot end my account or my discipline?
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate the chance of a losing streak?
What is a normal losing streak for a 50% strategy?
Are the results exact?
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