XAUUSD risk reward calculator for gold
Enter entry, stop and target for gold and see the dollars at risk, the reward to risk ratio and the break-even win rate.
Pick buy or sell and enter the entry, stop-loss and take-profit prices with the lots and the ounces per lot. The calculator shows the money at risk, the money at the target, the reward-to-risk ratio and the win rate at which the plan breaks even before costs. The starting numbers are invented: buy 0.10 lots at 2,650 with a stop at 2,645 and a target at 2,662.
What the ratio tells you and what it does not
Reward to risk compares how far the target is with how far the stop is. A ratio of 1 to 2 means the target is twice as far away as the stop. That says nothing about how likely the target is, only what a win pays compared with what a loss costs. The ratio becomes useful when you pair it with the win rate, because the two together decide whether a series of trades makes or loses money.
The general risk to reward ratio calculator works in abstract units. This version is built for gold: it takes prices, lots and the 100-ounce contract and turns them into dollars, so you see the real amounts a gold trade would put at stake.
The formulas
| Quantity | Calculation | Starting numbers (hypothetical) |
|---|---|---|
| Risk distance | entry - stop (buy) | 2650 - 2645 = 5.00 |
| Reward distance | target - entry (buy) | 2662 - 2650 = 12.00 |
| Ounces in the position | lots x ounces per lot | 0.10 x 100 = 10 |
| Money at risk | risk distance x ounces | 5.00 x 10 = $50 |
| Money at target | reward distance x ounces | 12.00 x 10 = $120 |
| Reward to risk | reward / risk | 12 / 5 = 2.4 |
| Break-even win rate | 1 / (1 + ratio) | 1 / 3.4 = 29.4% |
For a sell the distances are measured the other way: the stop is above the entry and the target below it. The calculator checks that the prices are on the correct side and shows a message if they are not, which is a useful guard against a typo in a fast moment.
Break-even win rate: the number to keep next to the ratio
If every winner pays R times what every loser costs, you need to win a share of 1 / (1 + R) of your trades just to get your money back, before spread, commission and swap. The table shows the pattern for the ratios traders use most. It is plain arithmetic, not a promise about any strategy.
| Reward to risk | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40.0% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% |
| 1 : 3 | 25.0% |
Costs push the real break-even higher. A trader whose spread and commission eat 10% of the risk on every trade needs a higher win rate than the table shows. The page on MT5 commission explains where that cost appears in your history, and the break-even win rate calculator handles the general case.
A worked example (hypothetical)
Two plans for the same chart. Plan A is a buy at 2,650 with the stop at 2,645 and the target at 2,662: risk $50 at 0.10 lots, reward $120, ratio 2.4, break-even near 29%. Plan B uses the same entry and target but the stop sits at 2,640: risk $100, reward $120, ratio 1.2, break-even near 45%. Nothing about the market changed. The wider stop may be more likely to survive noise, and the calculator makes the price of that choice visible: Plan B has to win far more often to pay. Neither plan is recommended here. The point is to choose with the numbers in front of you.
From plan to review
The ratio you plan is not the ratio you get. Stops get moved, targets get cut, and some trades are closed by hand. To find out how your real trades compare with your plan, you need your closed trades with their actual results. AI Trading Journal reads them from your MetaTrader 5 history and shows win rate, profit factor and average win and loss, and you can write the planned ratio in each trade's notes. A monthly look at the planned ratio next to the realised average win divided by average loss, using the average win and loss calculator, is one of the most honest reviews a trader can do. For sizing the position from a fixed risk, see the XAUUSD stop loss calculator and the XAUUSD take profit calculator.
Limits of this calculator
- It assumes a dollar account and a symbol quoted in dollars per ounce with a fixed contract size.
- It ignores spread, commission, swap and slippage, so real amounts at risk and at the target differ.
- The ratio says nothing about the probability of reaching the target.
- It is arithmetic for planning, not trading or investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate risk reward on gold?
What win rate do I need for a 1 to 2 ratio?
Is a higher reward to risk ratio always better?
Why does the calculator reject my prices?
Can the journal app tell me my realised ratio?
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