MT5 expected payoff: the average result of one trade

Expected payoff tells you what one trade earns on average. Here is the formula, a worked example and the traps of reading it too early.

The expected payoff is one of the quieter numbers in an MT5 report, and it is arguably the most useful. It answers a simple question: on average, how much does one trade earn or lose you? If the answer is positive, your trading has produced a gain per trade over the period. If it is negative, each trade has cost you money on average, however good the wins felt. This page explains how the figure is calculated, how it relates to expectancy, and how to use it without fooling yourself.

The definition

In the MetaTrader 5 report, the expected payoff is the average profit or loss per trade. The simplest way to compute it is to divide the total net profit by the number of trades. A second way gives the same answer: multiply the average win by the win rate, multiply the average loss by the loss rate, and subtract.

Written in words: expected payoff equals win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss. That second form is helpful because it shows which lever moves the number.

Where to find it in MT5

The figure appears in the strategy tester results and in the trade report you can build from the History tab of the Toolbox. Open the History tab, choose the period, right-click and look for the report options; menus vary a little between builds and brokers, so check your own terminal. If you want a guided tour of the other report lines, read the MT5 report analyzer page and MT5 trading statistics.

A worked example (hypothetical)

Suppose a trader closed 40 trades in a month. 18 were winners averaging 80 each, and 22 were losers averaging 45 each. All numbers are made up for illustration.

Both routes give 11.25. That is the average gain per trade. Notice that the trader lost more often than they won, and the number is still positive. That is the point of the expected payoff: win rate alone does not decide it. If you want to try your own numbers, the expectancy calculator does the arithmetic for you.

Expected payoff versus expectancy

The two terms are close relatives. Expectancy is the general idea of the average result per trade, sometimes expressed in money and sometimes in R multiples (units of your initial risk). The expected payoff in an MT5 report is the money version, calculated from the trades in the report. The R-multiple version is more useful when your position size changes, because it strips out the size. You can see that version on the R-multiple calculator and in win rate, profit factor and expectancy explained.

How to use the number

• Compare periods. If the expected payoff was 11.25 last month and 3.00 this month, something changed in your average win, average loss or win rate. Find out which.
• Estimate the effect of costs. Subtract the cost per trade (commission, spread and swap) to see what is left. A small positive number can disappear once all costs are included. The trading cost calculator shows that step.
• Check by setup. If you tag trades by setup, compute the figure for each tag. A setup with a negative expected payoff over a decent sample is worth reviewing.
• Sanity check a new idea. A short run with a high figure is a hint, not proof.

Why a small sample fools you

The expected payoff is an average, and averages of few trades are unstable. Five trades with one big winner can show a large positive figure that disappears on the next five. As a rough habit, avoid drawing conclusions from fewer than a few dozen trades in one setup, and treat even that with caution. There is no magic number, and the right sample size depends on how variable your results are.

The same logic works in reverse. A run of six losers can push the figure negative even when the underlying approach is sound. A journal helps here because it keeps the whole history in one place, so you can look at months and quarters rather than the last few trades.

What the figure leaves out

• Position size. Doubling your lot size doubles the money figure without changing your skill. Use R multiples if size varies.
• Variability. Two accounts can share the same average and have very different swings. The recovery factor and drawdown show the swings; see the MT5 recovery factor page.
• Costs, if your profit line excludes them. Check how your report treats commission and swap.
• Open trades. A report built from closed trades does not include floating profit or loss.

Using it with AI Trading Journal

AI Trading Journal reads closed positions from MetaTrader 5 and records one entry per position, with the result as profit plus commission plus swap. Its dashboard shows daily, weekly, monthly and all-time results, and you can filter the Journal page by tags or setup. It does not print an expected payoff figure, so to get it you divide the net result for a filtered set of trades by the number of entries, or export the report to Excel and use a formula. The Excel export has live formulas, so that is a quick calculation once the data is there.

Limits of this page

• The exact statistics shown, and their labels, depend on your MetaTrader 5 build and report type. Check your own report.
• The worked example uses invented numbers.
• This is an explanation of a statistic, not trading advice, and a positive figure in the past does not predict the future.

Frequently asked questions

Related guides

• A local trading journal for MT5
• P&L calendar for MT5
• Trade notes, ratings and screenshots
• Trading progress and goals
• Back up your journal and move it to a new PC
• An offline trading journal for Windows
• How to set monthly trading goals
• Import your whole MT5 history
• How to tag trades
• Trade screenshots for your journal
• All trading journal comparisons